Sean Murphy

My selection is on UMKC plus the points over Jacksonville at 7 pm et on Monday.

Both of these teams enter this game sporting 1-1 records and while Jacksonville comes off a game against national title contender Florida, Kansas City has actually faced the tougher schedule so far, going up against Creighton and Southern Illinois. Jacksonville's season-opener was a layup against little-known Trinity-Jacksonville. The Dolphins predictably rolled to a 105-61 win as they shot the lights out (44-of-74) in that game. I did find it a little concerning that they afforded their overmatched opponents 60 field goal attempts including 30 from beyond the arc in that contest. Their 88-57 loss to Florida could have been much worse had the Gators found their shooting legs. Florida never really stepped on the gas in that contest but still put up just shy of 90 points in a 30+ point rout. Kansas City appears to be in midseason form offensively, knocking down 25 and 33 field goals despite getting off just 52 and 57 attempts, respectively, in its first two games. The Kangaroos did a nice job of holding Creighton in check (24-of-59 shooting) before yielding 33-of-66 from the field against SIU. The 'Roos have held both of their opponents to single-digits in terms of made three-pointers and I think they can effectively limit the Dolphins opportunities from long range as well. Of note, in UMKC's season-opening loss but ATS cover at Creighton the difference was essentially at the free throw line as the Blue Jays got there 23 times compared to the 'Roos seven. Look for Kansas City to take this one down to the wire at the very least. Take UMKC (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Minnesota at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

The presence of the Vikings defense looms large over this matchup and total. Minnesota has seen each of its last six games stay 'under' the total since opening the season with a high-scoring home win over the Packers. I think we'll finally see that streak come to an end as the Bills roll into town on Monday. Buffalo's defense is not great, and that's putting it mildly. They caught a break last week as Ravens QB Lamar Jackson got injured on their first play and then his backup Tyler Huntley went out shortly thereafter. They ended up allowing just 10 points and their 'over' streak ended at three games as a result. Buffalo's three previous road games this season have all been high-scoring, reaching 67, 71 and 63 total points. While Minnesota's defense is tough, opponents have found a flaw in Brian Flores' group in recent weeks. The Vikes have allowed 6.7, 3.2, 4.7 and 5.9 yards per rush over their last four contests. Buffalo can certainly run the football with standout RB James Cook and of course the dual-threat ability of QB Josh Allen. The Bills have been incredibly consistent offensively this season, scoring 24+ points in all seven games. For Minnesota's struggling offense, we have a 'catalyst for change' at work as QB Kyler Murray is out. Veteran Carson Wentz takes over the offense. I do think there are too many playmakers on this offense for it to be as bad as it's been to this point. Remember, Murray left early wtih an injury in the team's highest-scoring game of the season (39-22 win over the Packers in Week 1). Wentz threw three touchdown passes in that contest. I certainly don't think Murray's absence hurts the Vikes offense, yet this total has dropped considerably since opening last Sunday. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on New York over Edmonton at 8:05 pm et on Monday.

The Rangers have been a much better team on the road than at home this season, continuing a trend we saw from them last season. They enter this game on the heels of three straight wins and out for revenge after the Oilers skated to a 4-1 victory in Manhattan just over a week ago. Bettors are sure to line up to back Connor McDavid and the Oilers here at what looks like a very reasonable price at home, especially after they got back on track with a two-goal victory over the lowly Canucks on Saturday. Note that Edmonton is just 4-4 over its last eight games and 2-3 in its last five at home. With New York playing some of its best hockey of the season, I think it's worth a flyer at this price. Take New York (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Houston at 8:40 pm et on Monday.

Injury concerns on the Nuggets side have moved this total but I still think it's moving in the wrong direction. Denver has been anything but a defensive powerhouse in the early going this season, in fact, it has been one of the weaker defensive teams by some of my metrics. The Nuggets check in having allowed six of their last seven opponents to connect on more than 40 field goals. They haven't exactly shown an interest in controlling or limiting the pace either, allowing three of their last four foes to hoist up 92 or more field goal attempts. The Rockets have been in a bit of an offensive slumber over their last two games, both losses against the Timberwolves and Suns. Prior to that they had connected on 40+ field goals in six straight and seven of eight contests overall. I do think Houston wants to push the pace, noting it has gotten off 90+ field goal attempts in three of its last five games. On the flip side, the Rockets have limited their opponents scoring opportunities but have still yielded 40+ made field goals in two straight and seven of 10 contests this season. The Nuggets have been 'filling it up' all season despite not playing at all that fast of a tempo, knocking down 42 or more field goals in two straight and five of their last seven games. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Monday.

The Cavaliers got off to a slow start to the season defensively but have settled in lately, holding six straight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals and don't figure to get pushed by a Hornets squad that has connected on a pitiful 32 or fewer field goal attempts in three straight and five of its last six contests. Charlotte has at least played the role defensively, limiting eight consecutive foes to 86 or fewer field goal attempts and five of its last six to 40 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back five games to find the last time the Cavs made good on more than 40 field goal attempts. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair here. Take the under (8*).

Sean is RED HOT over the last week and he's ready to go with FOUR best bets on Monday, featuring NFL, NBA, CBB and NHL action! Plus he has already loaded his weeknight CFB plays including a number of big ticket releases! Murph is enjoying another winning CFB season and off to profitable starts in the NBA and CBB as well; hop on board with a long-term subscription package today and don't miss a single winner!